A Divination Experiment

[Ratatosk]

Let us suppose for a moment that:

1. There appear to exist an infinite set of possibilities for any future state.
2. Some possibilities appear far more probable than others.
3. Some possibilities seem much less probable than others.
4. Through divination we might percieve which possible states are more probable, perhaps even highly probable.
5. Multiple parties divining against the same set of "highly probable" events may derrive seperate answers, however the most probable event may be divined more often than slightly less probable ones.

If the above suppositions seem useful for describing divination, then let us propose an experiment.

(Thanks to Isis and the Bird Flu post)

Let us find a question which a wide range of CMT's here at Ideosphere are impacted by. Let us then determine a method of divination (perhaps a specific tarot spread etc), further let us propose a specific time (either by time zone or cross-zone) that this ritual and divining session will take place, which I theorize should lessen the time wherein the butterfly effect may change the probabilities and thus the readings.

The following key elements may be involved:

• All participants open with an agreed upon banishing ritual.
• All participants then meditate on the question and lay out the prearranged tarot spread.
• The spread will be documented and submitted to the project, along with the diviner's interpertation.(Not directly posted until all posts have been collected, no cross-contamination)
• We will then compare the results and publish the ratio of interpertations.
• We can also compile all tarot readings to determine which cards appeared more often across spreads, as well as which cards appeared across spreads in the same position.

My initial goal, determining how closely divinations might mirror one another, seems easy to measure. The secondary goal (which would require a number of iterations of this test) would allow us to examine what sort of information we may find from a large group divination, if the group divination seems to support the majority of individual divinatory interpertations.

If we have enough interest, I would further recommend that we begin with a set of five questions, so that we may have multiple sets of data to examine. I also recommend that we document the entire project for publication.

Thoughts?

[Defenestrator]

I think group experiments, carefully controlled and documented, are a great idea and could add to the magical egregoire if we published them.

But while reading your post, I remembered the quantum phsyics truism that observing a thing or event changes whatever is being observed -- so I started wondering whether there's really any difference at all between divination and echantment. Once you've picked a question to divinate upon, by focusing on that question you're already affecting the outcome somehow, which is enchantment.

I do like the idea of a mass tarot spread, and noting similarities in cards that come up, etc. but I wonder if it would be better to do a mass enchantment -- for instance, for some unexpected money, and see what happens.

But I'm open to trying something, whatever the group here agrees upon.

[Ratatosk]

Well, I think we should probably expand this idea out to cover multiple areas of study. Before I took the trip on Psychonaut, I had begun the redimentary development of a "non-local entanglement" ritual, which I would hope to ultimately charge a sigil with. Maybe ;-)

Now, with this situation, I too am curious about how Heisenburg's little conundrum would affect the working. To put it bluntly, if divination of the future = observation of the future, and if by observing we collapse the waveform (or somehow modify it), then divination would seem next to useless. If however, divination simply helps us pull out probabilities, then we should be safe from actualy collapsing the waveform. Perhaps it may seem more like doing the math for probabilities?

Thoughts?

[Unnamed]

I like the idea and I'm not so worried about the "observation collapsing the waveform" problem, since I'm more drawn to the Consistent Histories interpretation of quantum mechanics than the version of the Copenhagen Interpretation where the waveform is considered to be real. There's even the Transactional Interpretation, where behavior is determined by the interaction of waves progressing both forwards and backwards in time. The thing is, none of these interpretations are empirically distinguishable, yet, so all we have to go on is our intuitions to decide which we like best, and there's no reason to believe that the current list of interpretations exhausts the logical possibilities of interpretations.
I'm willing to take part in this experiment, but I only have two decks available to me: the Thoth and the Witches' Tarot.

[Ratatosk]

I have only the Thoth deck.

[Defenestrator]

I hadn't thought about the matter of different decks -- I've always used Rider-Waite. Don't they all have the same number of cards, with the same names, despite the radically different illustrations?

[zach]

this sounds very interesting. i think rather than speculating about how the experiment will fit into the models and metaphors produced by scientists, we should do it first and then see IF the experiment fits into any known model or metaphor. maybe we will come up with something new and inspiring that simply will not fit into any preconceived notions...i also only own the THOTH deck...

[Ratatosk]

zach,

I agree.

Defenestrator,

I think there are some minor differences, one deck may have "pages" instead of "princes" etc. However, I'm pretty sure that they all appear to have the same archana.

[zach]

just an idea...what if we emulated the random belief exercise in liber null/psychonaut, only use paradigms based on certain theories of quantum physics. for example, invoke the copenhagen interpretation, perform divination. or, invoke the heisenberg uncertainty principle, or simple materialist pro-athlete superstition...what would this do to the experiment...maybe just make it way to complicated...could it clear up the difference between divination and enchantment?...thoughts?

[Isis]

Of course I will join that kind of experiment any time I can  good agreements too.
I can even do so from Thailand. 

I really don't know if the cards matter.
It could, as I believe the  Toth deck describes the journey to the New Aeon in the arcana.
As such I find it probably more aligned for devinations regarding the journey of the collective towards it, then the decks that respond to the old aeons or are designed to mirror the subconcious. 

[Telarus, KSC]

I have worked most with the A.C.'s Thoth deck, but the last one I had burned down with my house in mid '03.

Right now I have "The Faerie Wicca Tarot". Very beautiful deck, and it seems modeled after AC's Thoth, but with figures (and I was supprised by the accuracy and "non-fluffyness") from Irish/Gaelic Myth.

For example: Trump IV (The Emperor in the Thoth deck) is{sic} labeled Athair Dia Dagda (the father God) and shows a red-haired bearded man in the same one-legged pose, yet he has his arms spread and stands upon a blue-grey menhir (standing stone) with some Ohgma (sp?) written upon it.

Trump XII (Death entanged in the strings of Fate in Thoth) shows "Baen Sidhe Cailleach" (the Banshee Crone) shows an aged preistess consulting a swirled purple orb in the foreground, and a Banshee with white hair, rinsing blood out of a cloth and wailing in the background.

The most interesting this about this deck: it has 5 additional cards (one marked "00", and named "The Tree of Life", I suppose to come before the Fool) and the 4 other unmarked, they show:
The Holy stone (a stone with a hole drilled thro one end)
The Crane Bag (A green bag marged with runes with a grey or black feather tied to the drawstring)
The Hazel Wand (marked with runes, and with 9 acorns tied to the tip)
The Apple Branch (with 3 golden apples {!!!!!} resting beside it)

I lost the book to this deck in the aforementioned fire, but these 5 cards supposedly represent the "Gifts" from the Tuatha-de-Danan.

I like the deck, as it resonated with my Irish blood, but I haven't seriously considered using it until very recently. I intend to study up (maybe find the author...wait, artist..no the it's{sic} a book, ....author's site), and would be glad to join the experiment.

[Ratatosk]

Do spreads matter?

Should we specify a spread and specific time for this, or should we first simply collect data based on the individual diviner's spread and time choice?

Which appears as a more likely a better baseline?

[zach]

i would suggest a specific time and maybe a semi-specific spread (number of cards used). i think it will be easier to collect the data that way.

[Ratatosk]

This is a DRAFT, please comment freely on thei ideas presented here.


Purpose: To collect raw data for initial examination from multiple subjects engaged in the divination of like questions. 

Assumptions:
•   For this experiment we will focus on “divining short”, that it, examining only future possibilities in the near future.
•   All subjects will use a tarot deck for divination.
•   All subjects will use up to 23(?) cards and perform each divination within a pre-determined 24 hour time period. All subjects will perform (and document) a banishing ritual before the divination.
•   All subjects will record the full spread, ritual, their interpretation and the time of the divination.
•   All subjects will submit this information to a private email address (divination@theinvisiblecollege.com ?). All data will be displayed publicly at the same time to avoid any risk of contamination of data.
•   Subjects will not discuss the results of their divination with anyone else, until all data has been collected and posted.
•   Each subject will participate in all 5 subjects.


Initial Data Examination:

1.   How many divination interpretations support one another?
2.   Does a particular interpretation appear to have majority support?
3.   Do supporting divinations appear more often among specific subjects?
4.   Do supporting divinations seem dependant on time?
5.   Did specific tarot cards appear more often than others?

The Five Topics:

(First Draft)
1.   The next six months in Iraq
2.   Areas of the World with highly probable natural disasters over the next six months.
3.   Do major new discoveries seem likely over the next six months? In which areas of study (biology, archeology, psychology, physics, technology, art, etc)?
4.   The state of nuclear weapons programs worldwide over the next six months.
5.   Baseline. (Full ritual and spread, no particular question… this data will act as a control set)

[zach]

very well thought out! i had assumed that 6 months was a "long" period of time (more suited for enchantment) but what do i know. i am definitely excited to participate!!